The Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) projects that Ghana’s national gold production will surge from 5.1 million ounces in 2024 to approximately 6.3 million ounces in 2026. This growth is driven by
a monumental shift in the production mix, specifically a fourfold increase in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector.
The Great Production Flip
For the first time in Ghana's history, the small-scale segment is projected to account for just over 50% of total national output by the end of 2026.
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Small-Scale Producers: Projected to grow from roughly 700,000 ounces in 2022 to over 3.2 million ounces in 2026. This is largely attributed to MIIF's Small-Scale Mining Incubation Program (SSMIP), which provides equipment and formalization support.
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Large-Scale Producers: Expected to recover from a 2025 trough of 2.8 million ounces to roughly 3.0 million ounces in 2026.
MIIF’s 2026 Strategic Orientation
Beyond gold, MIIF is diversifying its $1.7 billion (projected AUM) portfolio to safeguard against global geopolitical risks. The 2026 strategy focuses on "Future Minerals" and selective equities:
| Investment Area | 2026 Objective |
| Critical Minerals | Finalizing equity positions in Lithium, Cobalt, and Rare Earth Elements to power the EV revolution. |
| Industrial Salt | Resuscitating the Ada Songhor Salt project to become a top industrial earner by 2030. |
| Equities | Selective positioning in global and local tech/AI firms to harness productivity gains. |
| Fixed Income | A balanced approach to manage yield volatility as Ghanaian Treasury rates are projected to drop toward 10%. |
Navigating Geopolitical and Environmental Risks
The MIIF outlook identified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict as the primary drivers of gold’s "safe-haven" rally, with prices projected to peak near $5,750/oz in Q1 2026. However, the fund warns that the surge in small-scale production necessitates:
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Stronger Regulatory Oversight: To combat mercury use and environmental degradation.
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Enhanced Royalty Capture: Ensuring that the 3.2 million ounces from small miners are fully accounted for to prevent revenue leakage.
The Bottom Line
MIIF is positioning itself as more than just a royalty collector; it is becoming a co-investment anchor for Ghana’s industrialization. By betting heavily on the formalization of small-scale miners and the emerging lithium market, the Fund aims to hit a target of $3 billion in Assets Under Management by the end of 2026.
